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In a bold commitment to combat global warming, China has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels over the next decade – and strive to do even better.
President Xi Jinping announced his country’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution ( NDC ) in a video address at the United Nations Climate Summit in New York on September 24, weeks ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference ( COP30 ) in Belém, Brazil, in November.
The NDC is a climate action plan under the Paris agreement that outlines national targets and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. COP participants are expected to submit their respective climate pledges no later than end-September.
Apart from the economy-wide net GHG emission reduction goal, China’s revised NDC also covers specific metrics ranging from energy transition to climate resilience, which include:
According to the Paris agreement adopted in 2015, countries are expected to update and submit their NDCs every five years.
Currently, most countries are in their second cycle of submissions, commonly referred to as NDC 2.0, which was submitted in 2021 and will guide their climate commitments and actions towards 2030.
China submitted its NDC2.0 in 2021, in which it committed to achieve peak carbon emission by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
At COP30 in Brazil, countries are expected to submit their third round of NDC ( NDC 3.0 ) that lays down the climate path they will take between 2031 and 2035.
So far, 48 countries, including China, have submitted their NDC3.0, according to the UN database. The United States has voted to drop out, while the European Union has yet to come up with a finalized version.
What’s new in NDC3.0?
Comparing China’s updated NDC3.0 statement: “by 2035, reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels”, with its NDC2.0 statement put forward in 2021: “by 2030, reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 65% from the 2005 level”, it is clear that the Asian giant is ramping up its approach to combat climate change in a systemic way.
First, the emission reduction target in the new NDC covers all GHG, whereas the target in NDC 2.0 focused solely on carbon dioxide. This expanded scope means that other climate-critical gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, are now included under China’s national reduction framework, indicating a more comprehensive approach to climate mitigation.
Second, the target in the updated NDC is based on absolute quantity, whereas the target in NDC 2.0 was based on emissions intensity. Quantity-based goals are generally considered to carry greater binding power, as they reflect absolute reductions rather than relative improvements in efficiency.
Where is China now?
To get a fuller picture of China’s climate ambition, it’s useful to look at its current progress on specific metrics.
According to data from the Energy Institute, China is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with coal, oil, and gas collectively accounting for 80.26% of its energy consumption as of 2024. This means China must increase its renewable energy mix by 2% per year over the next decade to meet its goal of achieving a 30% share of non-fossil fuels in energy use.
According to figures from the National Energy Administration ( NEA ), China’s renewable capacity reached 534 GW in 2020. The new NDC aims to increase this capacity sixfold, or over 3,200 GW. NEA data also shows that as of June 2025, China’s cumulative installed wind plus solar capacity has reached 1670 GW, meaning China needs to double that number in the next 10 years.
Regarding forest stock, China’s volume exceeded 20 billion cubic metres as of end-2024, according to government data, making the target of 24 billion cubic metres by 2035 well within reach.
Meanwhile, the share of new energy cars has reached 44.3% of all auto sales in the first half of 2025. The goal of making new energy cars the mainstream could mean increasing this figure by another 23 percentage points to reach 67%, thereby qualifying for the definition of a majority.
Finally, China’s National Carbon Emissions Trading Market now incorporates the power, cement, steel, and aluminium smelting sectors. A coverage of major high-emission sectors would also need to incorporate chemicals, manufacturing, transportation, and buildings.
